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Theories and Methods of Science of Science

Study on the Interaction Between Green Technology Innovation, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emission Based on PVAR Model 

Bai Mingguo, Cheng Honghe, Zheng Ke 

(School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan 243032, China)

Abstract: Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced  rapid growth. However, this rapid economic development has come at a cost: the natural environ⁃ ment has been seriously damaged, leading to immense pressure for ecological restoration. Ac⁃ cording to authoritative statistics, China ranks first in the world for total carbon emissions. In re⁃ sponse, the Chinese government has put forward the strategic goals of "Carbon Peaking and Car⁃ bon Neutrality", advocating a green, environmentally friendly, and low-carbon lifestyle while  pursuing green and low-carbon development. Achieving the "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neu⁃ trality Goals" and high-quality economic development are the two strategic tasks now in the new  development stage, and green technology innovation is an important support for carbon emission  reduction and economic growth. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to  explore the interaction between green technology innovation, economic growth, and carbon emis⁃ sion in China. This paper uses the panel vector autoregressive model to analyze the panel data of 30 prov⁃ inces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2011 to 2021 to investigate the interactions  between green technology innovation, economic growth, and carbon emission across the overall  country, as well as in the eastern, central, and western regions. The results show that, from the  perspective of China's overall development, the level of green technology innovation and eco⁃ nomic growth shows a decreasing trend across the eastern, central, and western regions. The  growth rate of carbon emissions in China has continued to slow down, leading to remarkable  achievements in carbon emission reduction. In the short term, there is a positive relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emission, with green technology innovation sup⁃ porting economic growth. In the long run, there are plain differences across the interactions be⁃ tween green technology innovation, economic growth, and carbon emissions. The interaction of  the three in the eastern region is not significant. In the later stage, the central region can experi⁃ ence a positive effect of carbon emissions on green technology innovation, which leads to a coor⁃ dinated relationship between green technology innovation and economic growth. In the western  region, green technology innovation and economic growth can not only promote each other in the  later stage, but also help to restrain carbon emissions. It is important to note that green technol⁃ ogy innovation tends to lag, which means that its impact on reducing carbon emissions will be  more evident in the later stage. According to the research conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward: China  should prioritize improving the level of green technology innovation, actively promote  innovation-driven green and low-carbon development, and form a two-way synergistic interac⁃ tion mechanism between green technology innovation, economic growth, and carbon emission re⁃ duction as soon as possible. It is necessary to pay attention to regional differences in carbon  emission levels and implement differentiated carbon reduction policies. The eastern region  should strengthen research and development in clean energy and carbon emission reduction tech⁃ nologies, the central region needs to improve its capacity for independent innovation, while the  western region should strengthen infrastructure development. China should accelerate the reform  of the traditional energy structure, spearhead the transformation and upgrading of its industrial  structure, promote the green transformation of the economic structure, and explore new economic  growth opportunities in emerging sectors. 

Key words: carbon emission; green technology innovation; economic growth; PVAR model; interactive relation