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Science & Technology Strategy and Policy

The Comparative Analysis of Future Industrial Development Poli⁃ cies Based on "Goal—Guarantee—Effect" 

— A Case Study of Shanghai and Shenzhen 

Liu Xiao, Huang Xintong

(School of Management, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China)

Abstract: Future industries, as key drivers of future economic and social transformation, play  an essential role in building a modern industrial system. Based on the process of industrial  policy formulation, this study selects seven specific indicators, including policy timeliness policy support and policy objects , , from three dimensions of policy goals, policy guarantees and  policy effects, and builds a three-dimensional comparative analysis model of "goal-guaranteeeffect" through literature analysis, policy text analysis and other methods. The paper objectively  and scientifically evaluates the similarities and differences of the future industrial policies of  Shanghai and Shenzhen, and deeply explores the logic and reasons behind the policy formula⁃ tion. From the perspective of policy goals, both Shanghai and Shenzhen are committed to acceler⁃ ating the construction of future industrial innovation ecosystem, although they differ in the length  of the industrial cultivation cycle and the focus of key cultivation areas. From the perspective of  policy guarantees, although there are differences in the methods and objects of talent cultivation,the modes of financial support, and the ideas of regional open cooperation between Shanghai and  Shenzhen, both cities have optimized the allocation of key elements required for the high-quality  development of future industries in combination with urban resource endowment. From the per⁃ spective of policy effects, the future industrial development policies formulated by Shanghai and  Shenzhen serve a significant guiding role, pointing out the scientific direction for regional indus⁃ trial development. Accordingly, this study proposes corresponding countermeasures and sugges⁃ tions from four dimensions: first, to strengthen the cultivation of future industrial talents, continu⁃ ously optimize the education and training system, and enhance the professional skills and innova tive capabilities of talents ⁃ ; second, to broaden financing channels and promote diversified invest⁃ ment, providing rich financial support for the sustainable development of the future industries; third, to plan ahead for the layout of future industries, formulate scientific industrial develop⁃ ment plans, and enhance the competitiveness of future industries; fourth, to build a future indus⁃ trial innovation ecosystem, optimize the policy environment, promote industry-universityresearch collaborative innovation, and form a good ecology that fits the sustainable development  of the industry. Through comparative analysis of the future industrial special policies of Shang⁃ hai and Shenzhen, this study can, on the one hand, more accurately identify the industrial needs  of the two cities in the aspects of talent cultivation, capital subsidies and regional cooperation, and in-depth analysis of the action logic behind the policy measures, which is conducive to sci⁃ entific assessment of the rationality of the future industrial policies of the two cities. On the other  hand, it can provide systematic development ideas and operational guidelines for other cities to  better understand and learn from the practice cases of the two cities, so as to formulate more fea sible and effective industrial development policies. In summary ⁃ , this study not only provides a  new perspective of case analysis from the theoretical level, but also provides new directional sug⁃ gestions from the practical level, which can effectively help the high-quality development of the  future industry 

Key words ：future industry; policy comparison; "goal—guarantee—effect"; industrial innova⁃ tion ecosystem